I like the Cubs in Thursday's day game for various reasons. First of all the Dodgers coming from the west coast to play in a day game starting a pitcher who is young and inexperienced on 4 days rest in a day game on the road is going to be a major challenge. Carlos Frias has a 2.96 ERA on the road this year and that may be what's giving us some value, but he's got a 9.28 ERA during day starts and he's got a 7.72 ERA during his 4 starts on 4 days rest and this is his second start in a row on 4 days rest. Meanwhile the Cubs bullpen is better especially looking at home/away splits where they have a run advantage and they post a 1.66ERA over their last 10.

The Cubs will start the veteran Jon Lester who is going up against the Dogers who are scoring 1.33 runs per 9 less vs. LHP than RHP. They also have a .220 average and 2.16 runs per 9 over their last 10 overall vs. LHP. Lester has far better stats with a nearly 4:1 ratio for K/BB while Frias does not even meet the 2:1 ratio which is a big red flag. Lester also has pitched well during day starts with a 1.75 ERA and he's been very good on 4 days rest. Take the Cubs here.

Where to find Freddy?